People vote in Haverstraw, New York, on Monday. (Seth Wenig/AP)

By Henry Olsen, senior fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center

On Monday, I’ll be back in your inboxes with a special edition of Margin of Victory in which I’ll share my election-eve predictions. Stay tuned.

Election night may be a roller coaster for many voters, but savvy observers will know how it’s going pretty early on. Here’s your hour-by-hour guide to watching the returns like a pro. All times are Eastern.

At 6 p.m.

Surprisingly, the earliest results won’t come from the East Coast. Kentucky and Indiana close most of their polls first, and two Democratic reach targets are worth checking. It will be a bad sign for Republicans if Democrats are within five points after some of the Election Day vote is reported in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District (Lexington and the central part of the state) and Indiana’s 5th (the northern Indianapolis suburbs and rural counties).

At 7 p.m.

An hour later, Florida closes its Eastern time zone polls, and that will bring in results from a bevy of key House races. Up to 80 percent of the total vote will be cast early, and Florida will probably release those results by 8 p.m. Republicans want to win at least three of the four seats targeted in Gov. Ron DeSantis’s partisan gerrymander — the 9th, 14th, 22nd and 25th Districts — to offset expected losses elsewhere. Democrats are looking at picking up the 13th, 16th or 27th Districts. A great night for the GOP would mean winning six of these seven districts; a great night for Democrats would have them capturing four or more.

Polls in Virginia and South Carolina also close at 7 p.m. South Carolina’s Senate race is the headliner: It would be shocking if Sen. Darline Graham lost, but anything less than a five-point win would augur a big Democratic night. In Virginia, the action is all in the House. Watch GOP Rep. Rob Wittman’s Tidewater-based 1st District, where a Democratic win would signal a very good night. And if Democrats unseat Rep. John McGuire (R) in the deep-red 5th District (Charlottesville, Lynchburg and rural counties), sound the blue tsunami warning.

At 7:30 p.m.

North Carolina and Ohio close their polls next. Each has high early-voting turnout that should lean Democratic. Former senator Sherrod Brown (D) will want to jump out to a significant lead in the Ohio Senate race. Democrats are also fighting to win three GOP-held House seats in the state — the 7th District (Max Miller), 10th (Mike Turner) and 15th (Mike Carey) — while defending Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s Toledo-based 9th District. Two House seats in North Carolina — Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s 1st District in the east and the GOP-held 11th in the far west of the state — are also in play. Democrats will need to win at least two of these six to be on track for a moderately sized House majority. If they win four, cover your head: A landslide could be starting.

At 8 p.m.

After that come some big ones. States with four key Senate races — Michigan, Maine, Kansas and Texas — close all or most of their polls at 8 p.m. Maine counts its votes extremely slowly, but the others are relatively fast to report the early vote. Texas’s early vote should be 70 to 80 percent of its total, and those returns will lean Democratic. State Rep. James Talarico (D) needs to lead those ballots by at least five points to have a good shot at flipping the seat. The GOP probably needs to win at least two of these four Senate races to hold the majority.

The battle for House control also moves into high gear this hour, with counts starting in at least 12 more closely contested House races. Key seats to watch include the GOP-held seats of Michigan’s 4th District (Rep. Bill Huizenga), Pennsylvania’s 1st (Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick), Pennsylvania’s 8th (Rep. Rob Bresnahan) and Texas’s 15th (Rep. Monica De La Cruz), plus Texas’s 35th, an open seat that was redrawn to favor Republicans. Also keep an eye on the Democratic-held 2nd District in Maine. Democratic wins in three or more of these seats portend a solid-to-outstanding night for Team Blue.

At 9 p.m.

Here come most of the remaining tightly contested races, as 12 states close their polls. Iowa is the most important to watch. It has a tight Senate contest plus three GOP-held House seats (the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Districts) at risk of flipping. Other contests to watch in Republican-held seats are Wisconsin’s 3rd District (Rep. Derrick Van Orden), Colorado’s 5th (Rep. Jeff Crank) and New York’s 17th (Rep. Mike Lawler).

Minnesota closes its polls at 9 p.m., too. Republicans are hoping that former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya can upset Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in the Gopher State’s Senate race, while Democrats are mounting a late charge for GOP Rep. Brad Finstad’s Rochester-based 1st District.

At 10 and 11 p.m.

States closing over the next two hours mostly feature some House reaches. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s gerrymander should ensure five Democratic pickups in California, but Democrats are hoping to take Montana’s 1st District or Nevada’s 2nd District as well. Republicans want to knock off Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd District. If the tide is running deep blue elsewhere, those Democratic dreams might actually come true. An unexpectedly good night for Republicans, meanwhile, could produce some late-hour upsets.

At midnight

Alaska’s polls close at midnight, but viewers won’t learn anything decisive about its crucial Senate race between former congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) for some time. Late-arriving mail ballots will still be counted, provided they are postmarked no later than Election Day. Alaska’s winter weather and remote villages mean it can take a long time for those ballots to be received and tabulated. And even that won’t necessarily end the process, because the state’s ranked-choice voting system can take days to work through. In 2024, the state did not certify its final calculation until Nov. 30, 25 days after Election Day.

It is thus possible that the Senate majority won’t be known for a month — or longer, if President Donald Trump’s lawsuit against Alaska for permitting a second Dan Sullivan to appear on the ballot gets traction. But don’t let that prospect deter you from enjoying election night with the rest of us as it unfolds. Isn’t democracy great?

Poll watch

Presidential job approval is a key signal ahead of the midterms. But overall job approval doesn’t tell the whole story, and many aggregators wind up overestimating Trump’s political weakness. Margin of Victory is tracking a better indicator: approval among registered and likely voters. One week to go!

I’ve got my eye on

Polls off overseas: Elections in Brazil, Israel and Serbia remind us that polling can often be wrong. Both Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu performed better than projected. In Serbia, polls had estimated President Aleksandar Vucic’s party would win the snap parliamentary vote, but instead the opposition Students’ List easily won. With so many Senate races on a knife’s edge, don’t be surprised if U.S. polls are also off.

My final Senate flip ranking: As many Democrats’ leads continue to shrink, it’s getting harder to assess this field. In my final ranking, I think the North Carolina and Ohio seats held by Republicans are most likely to switch hands, in that order. Maine is third, although GOP Sen. Susan Collins’s small but steady gains make this contest a genuine toss-up. After that come Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Iowa and Kansas. Republican hopes of flipping Minnesota are falling, while Democratic hopes of taking South Carolina — my new No. 10 — are rising.

Early voting: That data are getting more robust, and they tend to show heavy turnout from Democrats. It’s still uncertain whether that will continue throughout this final week, typically the heaviest early-voting period in many states. It’s also unclear if Republicans on the fence will sit the vote out or decide late to show up. Turnout surges have helped fuel some of the international upsets; a slight uptick in GOP voting compared with expectations could do the same here.