| Troy Jackson grew emotional when I asked him about the rising cost of home heating oil because of the war in Iran. He remembered his father digging under their northern Maine trailer to thaw out pipes and his mother “being depressed that we were in the situation that we were in.” “I know what kerosene on your hands at 20 below feels like. It’s not a f---ing nice feeling,” Jackson told me in Biddeford. “People across the state know exactly what this means and how they can’t afford it and what the unfairness is of a man that never had to worry about those things, starting a war that has blown our heating oil up 80% over last year.” As the weather grows cold in key battlegrounds nationwide, sky-high home heating oil prices could tilt a series of tight races. The average cost of home heating oil is well over $6 per gallon, up over 70 percent from this time last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While about 4.8 million households use heating oil to heat their homes in the winter, most are in the Northeast, home to two key Senate races this year in Maine and New Hampshire. Republicans have also weighed in on the issue. But the politics are notably one-sided: First because voters blame President Donald Trump and Republicans for rising prices and the war with Iran, and second because the Trump administration has repeatedly pushed to end the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps low-income Americans pay for heating oil. “For the sixth time, the Budget proposes to end this program and instead support low-income individuals through lower energy prices and an America First economic platform,” reads the Trump administration’s proposed budget for 2027. “No one can or should live that way,” said Jackson, Maine Democrats’ Senate nominee, taking on incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in one of the cycle’s most hotly contested Senate races. “This is worse than ever. And I don’t know how people are gonna do it. ... The federal government should not have gotten us in this position. And they certainly shouldn’t have been cutting a lot of heat funding so that people like Elon Musk have more f---ing money.” (As an aside, The Midcoast Villager, a standout local paper along Maine’s coast, has done some fantastic coverage of this issue, especially about how Mainers are bracing for a tough winter.) Gasoline and diesel prices have received considerable attention in this election. And rightly so. But in nearly every election I’ve covered, a sleeper corollary issue has directly affected a few key battlegrounds and could decide a few races because of its timeliness and potency. Home heating oil prices could be that issue for an electorate already angry about high prices. “We are a fairly cold weather state, and winter is coming,” said Marc Malon, a Democratic state representative in Maine who supports Jackson. “People are scared about how they are going to heat their homes this winter. It is a major issue.” Malon said he’s started to hear about it more and more when he knocks on doors for his own reelection campaign this year. “We are getting to the time of year where Mainers have to really have to start thinking hard not to turn their furnace on,” he said, calling it a household “battle to see if you can” make it into November without using oil. It’s not just Maine, either. Chris Pappas, a New Hampshire congressman and the state’s Democratic Senate nominee, urged the Trump administration last week to raise funding for the program from $4 billion to $7 billion a year because of high gas prices. “Granite Staters are seeing sticker shock when filling up their heating oil tanks because of Donald Trump’s war in Iran. And unfortunately, just as it’s starting to get cold again, the price of home heating oil is the latest in the long list of cost increases from gas to groceries to health care,” Pappas told me. Republicans are clearly aware this is an issue. John Sununu, the Republican nominee in the New Hampshire contest for Senate, said last week he would likely support increasing the energy assistance program. Bobby Charles, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Maine, “proposed using more than $200 million from the state’s Rainy Day Fund to offset high fuel and heating oil prices.” Paul LePage, the Republican nominee battling Democrat Matt Dunlap for a northern Maine congressional seat, has said he is concerned about the price of home heating oil. And when I spoke to Collins earlier this month in Augusta, Maine, she recalled how she was “talking yesterday morning with [Energy Secretary] Chris Wright on the phone about getting more home heating oil.” Last month, she urged the Trump administration to release more home heating oil. The issue is particularly potent because of the timing of these oil price shocks. Many people who rely on oil furnaces for heat top off their tanks in off-peak seasons to avoid the highest prices. But prices have been high for months, denying people the chance to do that. While this issue is most prominent in Maine and New Hampshire, Democratic operatives in Alaska and Montana said they began hearing anger about home heating oil prices a few months ago and that complaints have only grown as homes have had to pay for winter oil. “The high cost of heating fuel isn’t a talking point — this is a life or death issue in Alaska,” said Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alaska. “Montana winters are long and cold, and families tell me they’re paying more each month to heat their homes, keep the lights on, and buy diesel for their trucks and farm equipment,” said Seth Bodnar, the independent Senate candidate in Montana. On the campaign trail There was considerable bewilderment when Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa, broke with Trump on Iran in late September, considering she voted multiple times against a resolution to restrain the president’s war powers. “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she wrote on X. “The war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.” At the time, speculation suggested Hinson must have received a poll that raised significant red flags about support for the war. That is why it is noteworthy that in Hinson’s latest FEC report, the Republican campaign was invoiced on the same day as her break with Trump, Sept. 21, for survey research by pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates. I asked the Hinson campaign whether they would share that poll or explain if the survey was why the Republican Senate candidate broke with Trump on Iran. They did not respond. From across the newsroom - Trump approval hits record low, handing Democrats a clear midterm edge, from Dan Balz and Scott Clement.
- Deep red districts are now House battlegrounds. These are the races to watch, from Mariana Alfaro, Anna Liss-Roy and Eric Lau.
- Inside a Republican’s business safety record, under scrutiny in key House race, from Myla S. Roundy.
- Suburban women souring on Paxton could doom him in tight race, from Molly Hennessy-Fiske.
- Trump shares plan to overhaul East Potomac golf course amid court fight over land, from Rick Maese and Dan Diamond.
- In Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz tries to push Ken Paxton across the finish line, from Matthew Choi.
- No Kings rallies across US urge voters to cast ballots early ahead of midterms
What I’m watching What is Ayanna Pressley (D) talking about? Speaking with reporters on Friday, the Massachusetts congresswoman criticized operatives at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for, in her words, their “shameful” decision not to fund candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan equitably. “The DSCC should take note because it is shameful that we are not seeing an equitable investment in progressive and diverse candidates like Abdul El-Sayed, like Angie Nixon, like Scott Colom,” Pressley said, also citing Democratic campaigns in Florida and Mississippi. The one issue? The so-called Democratic establishment has poured tens of millions of dollars into El-Sayed’s race, including from the Democratic committee and Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. According to AdImpact, that super PAC alone has spent or reserved nearly $40 million in ads. The comment drew swift rebukes. “We’re not going back to this — casually implying racism on no basis whatsoever when “establishment” groups like the DSCC and SMP have invested something like $50M to help Abdul win,” said Adam Jentleson, a longtime Democratic operative. “Straight up lies,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic operative in Florida. A Pressley spokesperson said the congresswoman was “commenting on the decades-long systemic underinvestment in diverse and progressive candidates across the board — especially from traditional party infrastructure.” The spokesperson also noted that Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) argued for more investment in the South during his interview on “Meet the Press” yesterday. “I worry, to be very honest, that Democrats are missing a real opportunity to invest in a serious and sustained way in the South,” Warnock said. The spokesperson argued the senator’s comments echo Pressley’s, but they do not. Warnock did not mention Michigan. In your local paper Loudoun Now (Virginia): A Democratic state senator in Virginia has proposed a three-year data center moratorium, a particularly potent proposal in a state that is home to so-called Data Center Alley in Northern Virginia. Iowa Capital Dispatch: Trump will visit Iowa twice before Election Day next month, a sign that the state has come to embody the problems Republicans face this year. From you We received several fun names for the Smithsonian National Zoo’s new red panda. The most common was “Scarlett,” suggested by Barbara Chausse and Gloria Marder. “I would like to submit ‘Scarlet’ as the name for the new red panda, who you portray as having the same personality traits as Scarlet O’Hara,” wrote Gloria. “A bold and fiesty female should be named Lucy after bold and fiesta” in honor of Lucille Ball, added Gerri Hall. “I think Dolly is a perfect name for the Panda,” added Russell Murphy, in honor of Dolly Parton. And Roy Androli and his family backed Dolpa, a region in Nepal where red pandas scamper in the wild. “Honor the heritage where the red panda is from originally,” wrote Roy. Send a reply Katie Zacharia, we hardly knew thee. On Friday, the new White House press secretary became the former White House press secretary after being ousted. This saga was reminiscent of Trump’s first term, when chaos reigned. But what did you make of the ouster? And what does it tell you about this moment in the Trump administration? Let me and your fellow Early Brief readers know at earlytips@washpost.com. Thanks for reading. You can follow me on X at @merica. | 
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